BP Report - Forecasted rate of growth for the renewables sector

Oil and Gas giant BP suggest that the rapid progress in technology, combined with stronger policy support is driving the significant growth in renewable energy. In a recent report, BP suggests this growth could increase by five times and account for nearly 15% of primary energy consumption worldwide by 2040.


BP Outlook

Source: BP
According to the Evolving Transition scenario described in the BP Energy Outlook 2018 report, renewable energy could expand its position in the global energy mix from a current figure of 7% to nearly a quarter. The Evolving Transition scenario is based on a maintained pace and form of current policies, technology and social preferences. 

Spencer Dale, the chief economist of BP explains that the ET scenario identifies renewable energy as the main sector to gain shares over any other energy source in history, exceeding the rapid development of nuclear power back in the 1970s and 1980s.

The share of renewable energy within global primary energy consumption could potentially increase from previous figures of 235 million tonnes (oil equivalent MMtoe) in 2010 to upwards of 2500 MMtoe by 2040. To put it into perspective, the figure stood at 2 MMtoe back in 1970.
BP did suggest that despite the rapid growth of renewables, there will be a continued need for oil and natural gas to meet growing energy demands. BP believes that oil and natural gas combined are forecast to be the leading choice fuels of consumption, making over half of the global energy consumption levels. BP even suggests that coal, which has been targeted by many nations as a source of energy to remove will still be a play a part in the future energy mix. Taking this into account, the outlook delivered by BP suggested that carbon emissions will continue to rise and that a detailed list of actions will be required to change paths.

BP suggests that by 2040, non-fossil fuels, including renewables, nuclear and hydro would make up just over a     quarter of the global energy mix, a similar figure to natural gas and slightly lower than oil (27%) and just above the figure for coal (21%).

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